El Niño Puts World on Heat Alert. Will India's Monsoon Take a Hit?

By Pranjal Gupta

New Delhi, June 12: El Niño, one of the world's most powerful climate patterns, has officially returned after three years. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed that El Niño conditions have developed in the Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen during the ongoing southwest monsoon season.

Scientists say this development could have major implications for weather around the world, including India, where millions depend on the monsoon for farming, water supplies and electricity generation.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual.

Although it develops thousands of kilometres away from India, it can influence weather patterns across the globe. In India, El Niño is often linked to weaker monsoon rainfall, hotter temperatures and longer dry spells.

Meteorologists describe El Niño as one of nature's most powerful climate drivers because it can change rainfall and temperature patterns across continents.

Why Are Scientists Concerned This Time?

This year's El Niño is forming at a time when the planet is already experiencing record temperatures due to climate change caused by fossil fuel emissions.

Experts warn that the combination of global warming and a strengthening El Niño could push temperatures even higher and increase the risk of extreme weather events worldwide.

“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” said World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

Key messages

• Warm ocean waters are fueling the development of El Niño

• El Niño typically increases global temperatures and drives more extreme weather and rainfall patterns

• Above average temperatures forecast nearly everywhere for June to August

• Advanced forecasts help in preparations to protect lives and livelihoods

• Time for informed decision-making, planning and preparedness is now

What Could It Mean for India's Monsoon?

For India, the biggest concern is the southwest monsoon, which provides around 70 per cent of the country's annual rainfall.

Historically, many strong El Niño years have been associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall. Less rain can affect crop production, lower reservoir levels, reduce hydropower generation and increase pressure on water supplies.

Another major concern is heat. El Niño years often bring hotter-than-normal temperatures and more frequent heatwaves.

According to international weather experts, India could face more intense and prolonged heatwave conditions if El Niño strengthens further in the coming months.

Does El Niño Mean the Monsoon Will Fail?

Not necessarily.

Weather experts stress that El Niño is only one of several factors that influence India's monsoon. Other climate systems can either strengthen or weaken its impact.

This means that while El Niño raises the risk of lower rainfall, it does not guarantee a drought or monsoon failure.

Rainfall probabilities are typical of El Niño patterns and this is likely to contribute to a greater probability of extremes (e.g. increased rainfall and flooding, as well as drier conditions and droughts.

India has experienced El Niño years in the past where rainfall was affected, but the severity varied depending on other weather conditions.

Why Are Concerns Growing This Year?

The IMD has already revised its monsoon forecast downward.

On May 30, the weather department reduced its forecast for seasonal rainfall from 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) to 90 per cent. While 90 per cent still falls within the "below normal" category rather than a severe deficit, it signals increased concern about rainfall performance during the season.

The IMD has also predicted below-normal rainfall during June and warned that several parts of the country could experience more heatwave days than usual.

With El Niño expected to strengthen from July onwards, weather experts will closely monitor whether rainfall weakens during the crucial second half of the monsoon season.

When Did India Last Experience El Niño?

The last El Niño developed in 2023.

Before that, significant El Niño events occurred in 2015, 2009 and 2002. Some of these years saw major rainfall shortages, while others had a more limited impact.

This shows that the effects of El Niño can vary from year to year.

What Happens Next?

The IMD says El Niño conditions are already present and are likely to become stronger during the coming months.

Scientists will closely track sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, rainfall patterns and other climate indicators throughout the monsoon season. The IMD plans to issue regular updates as conditions evolve.

For now, the return of El Niño after three years serves as an important warning signal. It does not mean that India's monsoon will fail, but it does increase the chances of below-normal rainfall, hotter weather and more frequent heatwaves. How severe those impacts become will depend on how strongly El Niño develops and how other weather systems interact with it over the coming months.