India Likely to Receive 90% of Normal Monsoon Rainfall This Year: IMD

By Mahima Katal

India is expected to receive below-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season (June–September), according to the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) second forecast released on Friday.

The weather office has projected seasonal rainfall at 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4 per cent. The LPA for the country, calculated using rainfall data from 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 centimetres.

The IMD's earlier forecast, issued on April 13, had estimated rainfall at 92 per cent of the LPA.

According to the latest outlook, the Northeast region is likely to receive normal rainfall, while most other parts of the country may experience below-normal precipitation during the monsoon season.

IMD Director General of Meteorology Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that rainfall over the country's monsoon core zone—comprising largely rain-fed agricultural areas—is also expected to remain below normal, receiving less than 94 per cent of the LPA.

He further stated that rainfall during June, the first month of the monsoon season, is likely to remain below normal at less than 92 per cent of the LPA.

Under IMD classification, seasonal rainfall below 90 per cent of the LPA is categorised as "deficient".

Taking note of the forecast, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan urged state governments to prepare for potential rainfall shortages and adverse weather conditions, including the possibility of El Niño. He said the Centre is formulating contingency plans and assured that sufficient stocks of seeds and fertilisers are available for the upcoming Kharif sowing season.

The IMD also revised its forecast for the monsoon's onset over Kerala. While it had earlier predicted arrival by May 26, the department now expects the monsoon to reach Kerala within the next seven days. The normal date for monsoon onset over the state is June 1.

The southwest monsoon entered parts of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16. As of Thursday, it had advanced over parts of the South Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep region, southern Bay of Bengal, east-central Bay of Bengal, and the entire Andaman and Nicobar Islands and adjoining Andaman Sea.

The weather department warned that El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen through the season, remaining weak in June and becoming moderate to strong by September. At present, neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are gradually transitioning towards El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

El Niño is generally associated with reduced monsoon rainfall over India.

The IMD has also forecast above-normal maximum temperatures across most parts of the country in June, along with an increased likelihood of heatwave conditions.

Above-normal heatwave days are expected over several regions, including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, as well as isolated parts of Maharashtra.

In contrast, Rajasthan and Jharkhand are likely to experience fewer heatwave days than usual, Mohapatra added.